Wave Analysis for the year of 2015 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY)

Analysis for 2015

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As is well known, Euro has been existing in reality only since 1999, but the global ascending movement of Euro (approximate chart from the 70s of the 20th century) can be displayed in the form of some wave pattern with three consecutive ascending zigzags inside it. Eventually, this structure may be both leading diagonal triangle(a) and triple zigzag.

If this is really an ascending leading diagonal triangle(a), then possibly it may have already been finished. In this case, right now the market is forming some descending correction (b), the form of which isn’t quite clear yet.






One of the possible scenarios implies that the pair is about to complete wave a of (b) quite soon in the form of zigzag. If this assumption is correct, then in 2015 the market is expected to form an ascending wave b of (b), which may take several different forms.






An alternative scenario implies that the market may form a descending “leg” [C] of a of (b) in the form of a large impulse. According to this scenario, right now the pair is finishing the first wave of this impulse, (1) of [C], which may be followed by an ascending correction (2) of [C] and then by the downtrend inside impulse (3) of [C].

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

There are several possible scenarios for GBP/USD, some of them has been already published in my reviews earlier.

According to one of the possible scenarios, we can see several large zigzags, formed around one virtual horizontal axis. In this case, right now the price is forming a descending zigzag[A]-[B]-[C] of c.






One of the possible scenarios implies that at the moment the pair is forming an ascending correction [B] of c, which may also take the form of zigzag. If this assumption is correct, then in 2015 the market is expected to form an ascending impulse or diagonal triangle(C) of [B], which may complete correction [B] of c.






An alternative scenario implies that the market may have already completed correction [B] of с and may start a descending “leg” [C] of c in the form of a large impulse.  According to this scenario, the pair is about to finish the first wave of this impulse, (1) of [C], which may be followed by an ascending correction (2) of [C] and then by the downtrend inside impulse (3) of [C].

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The global descending movement of Franc can be displayed in the form of some wave pattern (a) with three consecutive descending zigzags inside as its main waves. Eventually, this descending structure may be both leading diagonal triangle(a) and triple zigzag.

It is worthy of note that zigzags I, III, and IV are becoming more and more flat successively. In addition to that, the length of these zigzags is successively decreasing in proportion to the value of golden section, 0.618:

III ~= I * 0.618
V ~= III * 0.618

These facts indicate that the kinetic energy of the price descending movement is decreasing, the movement itself is slowing down, and the long-term trend may reverse upwards quite soon. In this case, in 2015 the pair may form an ascending correction (b), which may take several different forms.






Probably, right now the market is finishing the first zigzag, a of (b), of an ascending correction (b). If this assumption is correct, then in 2015 the market is expected to continue forming an ascending wave b of (b), the form of which isn’t quite clear yet.






An alternative scenario implies that the market may is forming an ascending “leg” [C] of a of (b) in the form of a large impulse.  According to this scenario, the pair is about to finish the first wave of this impulse, (1) of [C], which may be followed by a descending correction (2) of [C] and then by the uptrend inside impulse (3) of [C].

We should also note that this alternative scenario matches possible (and promised) currency interventions of Swiss National Bank.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

According to wave analysis, the global descending movement of the USD/JPY currency pair can be displayed in the form of impulse (or double zigzag). However, in both cases these patterns can be considered almost completed with main waves, which means that the market may continue forming an ascending correction (b), which may take several different forms.







Possibly, the market is about to finish the first ascending zigzaga of (b) of a large correction (b). If this assumption is correct, then in 2015 the price is expected to complete this zigzag and make a reverse of the short-term trend downwards to start a descending correction b of (b).






An alternative scenario implies that the market may continue forming an ascending “leg” a of (b) in the form of a large impulse.  According to this scenario, the pair is about to finish the first wave of this impulse, (1) of a, which may be followed by a descending correction (2) of a and then by the uptrend inside impulse (3) of a.
 
RoboForex Analytical Department