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Home / Analytics / Forex analysis & forecasts / Forex Fundamental analysis / The Australian Dollar found itself in a weak position. Overview for 16.11.2016
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The Australian Dollar found itself in a weak position. Overview for 16.11.2016

The AUD/USD pair is trading downwards on Wednesday after they published some complicated statistics.

The Australian Dollar couldn’t stay on a positive wave after all and found itself under pressure as soon as the statistics was published.

The pair traded more or less calmly in the middle of the week, up until new macroeconomic reports were published. The Employment Cost Index in the third quarter increased by 0.5% q/q, as expected. However, on a year-on-year basis, the indicator was behind expectations, 1.9% against 2.0%. The Westpac Leading Index in October added just 0.1% m/m.

But the most negative response was to the report relating to the Wage Price Index in the third quarter. The indicator added 0.4% q/q (+1.9% y/y). Both numbers were behind expectations. YoY indicator was the weakest since 1997.

Decrease in the rate of growth of wages may cause slowdown in retail sales along with reduction of household expenses in the future. As a result, it may influence the country’s global GDP, and this is a completely another issue.

It’s quite interesting that the market is upset about these reports, but not scared. The situation is that for the first time since 2014, the market’s expectations relating to the RBA rate increase are growing. The fact that the expectations are growing is rather unusual and positive, although the regulator didn’t give any reasons for this.
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