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Home / Analytics / Forex analysis & forecasts / Forex Fundamental analysis / The Euro is librating. Overview for 31.08.2016
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The Euro is librating. Overview for 31.08.2016

The main currency pair is rising slowly on Wednesday afternoon, despite the published statistics.

The EUR/USD pair is growing a bit in the middle of the week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1147.

Today is the day of the European statistics, really. The Eurozone published several statistics reports, which are significantly behind the expected numbers though. For example, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone in July was 10.1% although the market expected it to be 10.0%. The CPI in August again moved to the negative, -0.1% y/y, although it was expected to increase by 0.3% y/y. the core inflation in August added 0.8% y/y against the predicted number of 0.9% y/y.

The inflation reports are “fighting” against the statistics on the economic and consumer sentiments published earlier, where one can easily see a more significant decline in retails sales and service industry.

In case of the CPI, it’s much more complicated. The inflation target set by the ECB is 2%, the same as other major Central Banks all over the world. The target is still quite far at the moment, but the QE program implemented by the European regulator implies a higher inflation in the future. However, for that purpose, it is essential that (apart from the QE of course) consumers were ready to spend money and energy supplies stopped getting cheaper. And both these factors are almost impossible to control.

Today, one of the most interesting statistics reports will be Non-Farm Employment Change in the USA from ADP. It is usually published before Friday’s reports on the employment market. In general, the report will show how stable the employment market was in August.
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