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Dakar 2017
Home / Analytics / Forex analysis & forecasts / Forex Fundamental analysis / The euro started the week with growth
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The euro started the week with growth

On Monday, the main currency pair gained half a percentage point in response to fairly good statistics.

The euro rises in price on Monday in tandem with the US dollar. There is a fundamental reason for this - the euro zone this afternoon presented mixed statistics. Judging by the reactions of the market, investors have decided to take on a positive driver, and leave the rest for later.

So, it was reported that retail sales in the region in August showed a value of zero m/m, and yearly they added 2.1%. The forecast assumed a decrease of 0.1% m/m and the increase only by 1.8% y/y. This release became the catalyst for the market today. Everything else gives too much cause for reflection.

Thus, the final calculation of the composite PMI index in September by Markit showed the decline in the indicator to 53.6 points against 54.3 points in August. The components of the report show that the purchasing managers' index fell to 53.7 points, which was a seven-month low in the indicator.

Markit Comments about this report are quite mixed. They confirmed the fact of a fall in the indicators, but still show hope of an expansion in the euro zone economy in the third quarter at least 0.4%. The latest published statistics on the economy of the euro area really came out very mixed, some of it can point to some increase in the GDP of the Eurozone, the second part puts a thick line through these hopes.

It is important to note here that investor confidence is fading away. According to the Observer Sentix, in October, the indicator fell to a minimum of eight months and amounted to only 11.7 points against September values of 13.6 points. The assessment of current conditions index dipped to 13 points versus 15 points previously. The expectations index was at an annual minimum. What does it mean? The markets clearly do not rule out the probability of failure of the new economy, and they have a lot of reasons for this, from the deceleration of the Chinese economy to the fall in inflation in the region. The ECB, in turn, is not going to expand the incentives yet.
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