The main currency pair could rise fairly well on Monday with statistical data and high oil prices, but there is a lack of demand.
At the beginning of this week the EUR/USD is trading a little bit higher. This is strange: the US Dollar could fall deeper given the sharp fluctuations on the oil market while the euro could rise higher in sight of today’ statistics. But apparently, investors prefer not to step in and keep their mind calm. On top of that, the US markets are closed on Monday due to the Labor Day. The current price for EUR/USD is 1,1165.
Today's statistics has shown that the September Sentix Investor Confidence index in EU has risen to 5.6 points comparing to August value of 4.2 and the estimated number 5.1. Currently it is on 3-month high and this looks positively enough.
EU retail sales in July rose by 1.1% m/m (+2,9% y/y). This is well above expectations (+0.6% m/m and +1.9% y/y). In the meantime, the June figure has been updated for lower ones. Demand for motor fuel and food has made a substantial contribution to the retail sales figure. Non-grocery food has showed a rise for only 0.4%. EU retail sales in July have also risen and here the demand for motor fuel has also contributed.
This week the ECB organizes a yet another meeting. The rate will be discussed. Most probably, ECB will keep its basic fiscal policy intact: the European authority will prefer to see how the Fed acts and only after that can decide on whether to implement any additional steps on money stimulus. According to ECB’s Mersch, the European economy is recovering very slowly and it needs to be supported and stimulated. However, it is unlikely that ECB can decide to do this right now.
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