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Home / Analytics / Forex analysis & forecasts / Forex Fundamental analysis / The referendum is in full swing. Fundamental analysis for 23.06.2016
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The referendum is in full swing. Fundamental analysis for 23.06.2016

The Brexit referendum is in full swing. At night, there were hard rains in London and Southern England, and, as a result, a lot of polling stations were flooded. The bad weather may directly influence the voters turnout. Earlier, opinion surveys indicated that the Outers had more motivation to vote than the Remainians. Consequently, when the Brits have to queue under the rain in order to vote, there is a great possibility that some of the Remainians may change their minds to go to polling stations and vote.

The biggest number of people registered for participation in the referendum, almost 46.5 million. Latest polls results are close to statistical accuracy – everything will be decided directly in polling stations. The final poll form Ipsos MORI was published today: 52% of the Brits are planning to stay in the EU, 48% want to leave. However, according to the same poll, 12% said that they may yet change their minds. In general, over the last 24 hours, the results of five polls were published – three of them shows the advantage of the Remainians, and two – the Outers. Thus, it’s impossible to predict the final results of the referendum.

Up to now, there is no information when the exit polls will be published. However, social networks users are already reporting that somebody surveys voters as they leave after all. Probably, after the stations are closed at 10 pm London time, some of these exit polls may be already published. The first voting results are expected between 3 and 4 am Friday London time, but they will not reflect the entire picture. We’ll know how the Brits voted only closer to 5 am.

So far, markets are very optimistic about the results. The driver for the GBP growth was latest surveys and polls, which indicated that the Remainians might win by a slim majority. However, more detailed study of sociology shows that 46% don’t see any declines while living outside the European Union. Moreover: the people just didn’t understand the economic reasons of the authorities. For instance, about 70% just didn’t believe Her Majesty's Treasury when it announced that the country’s exiting the European Union would cost each British family 4,300 Pounds.

Next several hours will be the riskiest on the market over the past few years, because everyone is “in limbo” regarding the future of both the United Kingdom and the European Union. Scottish politicians are already threatening with the second referendum in case the country exits the EU, and in other countries of the Union one can also hear calls for holding such referendums. Under such market conditions, it’s better not to hold positions open, because the level of risk is unprecedented.
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