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Home / Analytics / Forex analysis & forecasts / Forex Fundamental analysis / The euro is stuck in place
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The euro is stuck in place

On Thursday afternoon, the main currency pair is trading near three-month lows, while efforts to rehabilitate are inefficient.

During the second half of the trading day on Thursday, the euro is moving up by 0.02% in tandem with the US currency. The current price of the instrument is 1.0865.

It became known today that retail sales in the euro zone at the end of September 2015 decreased by 0.1% m/m with a growth forecast of 0.2%. Yearly in September, the indicator gained 2.9% against expectations of growth of 3%.

Attention today will be on the updated forecasts of the European Commission on key economic parameters for the current and next year. So, the euro zone's GDP growth in 2015, according to calculations, will be 1.6% versus the previous estimate of 1.5%. In the following year, the region's economy will be able to add 1.8%. Inflation in 2015 will grow by only 0.1% (complete agreement with the previous estimate), in 2016 it will add 1% against the spring calculation of growth of 1.5%. In 2017, the consumer price index will rise by 1.7%.

Unemployment rates in the euro zone in 2015 will be at around 11%, in 2016 will be reduced to 10.6% and in 2017 will amount to 10.3%. Not the most pronounced trend. At the same time, the European Commission believes that the influx of refugees can have a positive impact on the region's GDP and its components.

Investors reluctantly react to this information. This is understandable: the EC have generally more optimistic expectations than, for example, the ECB.
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