Walt Disney – fundamental and technical analysis for 2026

Disney confirms double-digit EPS growth for 2026 and a 7 billion USD buyback program, but negative free cash flow and margin pressure limit optimism. Technically, the shares remain within a wide range, with a persistent risk of a break below support at 100 USD.

The Walt Disney Company reported Q1 2026 revenue of 25.98 billion USD (+5% YoY), with adjusted EPS of 1.63 USD (–7% YoY), both exceeding Wall Street expectations.

Overall profitability declined, with total segment operating income falling to 4.60 billion USD (–9% YoY), and GAAP diluted EPS at 1.34 USD, down from 1.40 USD a year earlier.

The Parks & Experiences segment delivered the strongest performance, posting record quarterly revenue of 10.01 billion USD and operating income of 3.31 billion USD. Growth was aided by a 1% increase in US attendance and a 4% rise in average guest spending.

For Q2 2026, Disney expects the Entertainment segment’s profits to remain in line with the previous year, with streaming operating income of approximately 0.50 billion USD. The Sports segment is forecast to decline by 0.10 billion USD in profits, while Experiences is expected to grow moderately amid international demand pressures and pre-launch costs for new initiatives, including cruises and the World of Frozen in Paris.

For the full 2026 financial year, Disney reaffirms double-digit adjusted EPS growth, a streaming margin target of 10%, approximately 19 billion USD in operating cash flow, and a 7 billion USD share buyback program.

Investors reacted negatively despite results exceeding revenue and profit expectations, with shares dropping 7.4% immediately after the release. The market’s main concern is the sustainability of growth. Total operating income declined 9% due to rapid erosion of traditional TV, substantial content expenses, and the expansion of the cruise fleet. Streaming successes and record park revenues were largely overlooked, with attention focused on ESPN’s falling margins and the uncertainty surrounding Bob Iger’s successor.

This article reviews The Walt Disney Company, analysing its business model and conducting a fundamental analysis of Disney’s Q1 2026 report. A technical analysis of DIS shares is also provided, based on recent price dynamics, which serves as the basis for the Walt Disney Company stock forecast for 2026.

About The Walt Disney Company

The Walt Disney Company is one of the world’s largest media and entertainment corporations, founded on 16 October 1923 by brothers Walter and Roy Disney. The company is renowned for its live-action films and animated cartoons, including iconic creations such as ‘Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs’. Its portfolio includes Lucasfilm, Marvel Studios, Pixar, and 20th Century Studios. In addition to film production, Disney operates theme parks and resorts worldwide – Disney World and Disneyland – and broadcasts television through ABC, ESPN, and National Geographic. In 2019, the company launched the Disney+ streaming service. Another key business area is the production and licensing of merchandise related to its popular franchises. Disney went public on the New York Stock Exchange on 12 November 1957, trading under the ticker DIS.

The Walt Disney Company’s main financial flows

Walt Disney’s revenue is derived from several key sources, spanning a wide range of entertainment and media operations. Disney’s key revenue-generating segments are outlined below:

• Media Networks: television channels and cable networks (ABC, Disney Channel, ESPN, FX, National Geographic, and others). Revenue streams include advertising, licence fees, paid subscriptions, and the sale of broadcasting rights.
• Subscriptions and International Operations: streaming services (Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu) and international trade. The main sources of income are subscriptions to streaming platforms and the sale of content and licences in foreign markets.
• Parks, Experiences, and Consumer Products: theme parks, resorts, cruises, and hotels. Revenue is generated through ticket sales, holiday packages, souvenirs, licensed toys, and other goods and services.
• Studio Entertainment: film production and distribution, home video sales, and music publishing. Revenue is generated from cinema distribution, the sale of digital and physical content, and proceeds from music soundtrack and licensing.

In its financial reports, Disney categorises all revenue into three key segments:

1. Entertainment: film production, TV programming, cinema distribution, content sales and licensing, soundtrack releases, and Broadway productions.
2. Sports: operations related to the ESPN brand, including cable and digital sports broadcasts, broadcasting rights for sports events, the ESPN+ streaming platform, advertising, content licensing, and sports analytical programs and events.
3. Experiences: theme parks (Disneyland, Disney World, and international parks), cruises (Disney Cruise Line), resorts and hotels, attractions, as well as events and client engagement activities related to the Disney brand (interactive shows and VIP tours).
4. Eliminations: reflects fees paid by Hulu to ESPN and the Entertainment segment’s linear television business for the rights to broadcast their channels on the Hulu Live platform, as well as fees paid by ABC and Disney+ to ESPN for carrying certain sports content on the ABC channel and Disney+.

The Walt Disney Company Q4 2024 financial results

On 14 November, The Walt Disney Company released its Q4 2024 financial results for the quarter ended 28 September 2024. Key report data is outlined below:

• Revenue: 22.57 billion USD (+6%)
• Net income: 0.95 billion USD (–6%)
• Earnings per Share: 1.14 USD (+39%)
• Operating profit: 3.65 billion USD (+23%)

Revenue by segment:

• Entertainment: 10.83 billion USD (+14%)
• Sports: 3.91 billion USD (unchanged)
• Experiences: 8.24 billion USD (+1%)

Segment operating income:

• Entertainment: 1.07 billion USD (+353%)
• Sports: 0.92 billion USD (–5%)
• Experiences: 1.66 billion USD (+6%)

All indicators (except net income) showed growth. The company’s management attributed the decline in net income to increased spending on content production and marketing, as well as higher costs for developing streaming services (Disney+, Hulu).

The company projected continued growth in its key financial indicators in 2025 but predicted a potential decline in the number of new Disney+ subscribers in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024.

Disney plans a share buyback program worth 3.00 billion USD and dividend distribution this year. Dividends will increase by 33% to 0.50 USD per share and will be paid in two instalments in January and July 2025.

In 2026, Walt Disney predicted a slower percentage growth rate in the Sports segment, with significant single-digit growth in the Experiences segment and double-digit growth in the Entertainment sector.

Based on the company’s 2025–2026 forecasts, key financial indicators were expected to rise further, which should positively impact dividend payouts and the share buyback program, ultimately leading to an increase in the stock price.

The Walt Disney Company Q1 2025 financial results

On 5 February, The Walt Disney Company released its Q1 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 28 December 2024. Below are its key highlights:

• Revenue: 24.69 billion USD (+6%)
• Net income: 3.66 billion USD (+27%)
• Earnings per Share: 1.76 USD (+44%)
• Operating profit: 5.06 billion USD (+31%)

Revenue by segment:

• Entertainment: 10.87 billion USD (+9%)
• Sports: 4.85 billion USD (unchanged)
• Experiences: 9.41 billion USD (+3%)

Segment operating income:

• Entertainment: 1.70 billion USD (+95%)
• Sports: 247 million USD (vs a loss of 103 million USD)
• Experiences: 3.11 billion USD (+31%)

CEO Robert Alan Iger emphasised the company’s strong start to the new financial year and expressed confidence in its growth strategy. He highlighted significant successes in streaming services, including the integration of ESPN into Disney+, as well as consistently strong performance in the theme park and resort segment.

Looking ahead, Disney projected high single-digit growth in adjusted EPS compared to 2024. The company also expected operating income from the streaming segment (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) to increase by approximately 875 million USD. As previously projected, Disney planned to allocate 3.00 billion USD to share buybacks in 2025.

Although The Walt Disney Company exceeded revenue and income forecasts in Q1 2025, its stock drifted lower by the end of the trading session on the day the report was released. This was primarily driven by a decline of around 700 thousand Disney+ subscribers, which raised concerns about growth prospects across the streaming sector. Additionally, the company warned that subscriptions could decline further in Q2 following the recent price increase, which added to the negative sentiment in the market.

The Walt Disney Company Q2 2025 financial results

On 7 May, The Walt Disney Company released its Q2 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 29 March 2025. Key figures are as follows:

• Revenue: 23.62 billion USD (+7%)
• Net income: 3.09 billion USD (+369%)
• Earnings per share: 1.45 USD (+20%)
• Operating profit: 4.43 billion USD (+15%)

Revenue by segment:

• Entertainment: 10.68 billion USD (+9%)
• Sports: 4.53 billion USD (+5%)
• Experiences: 8.89 billion USD (+6%)
• Eliminations: (484) million USD (compared to a loss of 418 million USD in the prior year)

Segment operating income:

• Entertainment: 1.26 billion USD (+61%)
• Sports: 0.69 billion USD (–12%)
• Experiences: 2.49 billion USD (+9%)

Walt Disney’s Q2 2025 financial report provided clear evidence that the company was successfully regaining momentum. Earnings per share rose 20% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations, while revenue advanced 7%. Following the release, the share price jumped 11%. Yet the most significant takeaway was not only the improvement in financial metrics, but also the firm confirmation that Disney’s relaunch strategy was beginning to deliver tangible results.

One of the most notable announcements was the planned construction of a new theme park in Abu Dhabi. Importantly, Disney is not directly investing in the project itself – Miral covers all costs, while Disney provides creative input and will collect royalties. This asset-light strategy, with minimal capital expenditure, enables Disney to expand its international footprint without adding to its debt burden.

Despite the negative outlook expressed in the Q1 2025 report, Disney’s streaming platforms – particularly Disney+ and Hulu – added 2.5 million subscribers, bringing the total to 180.7 million. This growth contributed significantly to an increase in operating income. The success of theatrical releases such as Moana 2 and Marvel’s Thunderbolts not only boosted box office revenues but also increased streaming engagement and theme park attendance.

As of 29 March 2025, the company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at 5.85 billion USD, up from 5.48 billion USD on 28 December 2024. The increase in liquid assets highlights consistently positive cash flow and effective management of working capital.

Total borrowings, including short-term obligations, declined to 42.9 billion USD at the end of Q2, down from 45.3 billion USD three months earlier.

Free cash flow for the reporting quarter totalled 4.89 billion USD, underlining the company’s strong operating efficiency and ability to generate substantial liquidity to fund investments, service debt, and return cash to shareholders through dividends.

For Q3 2025, management guided further subscriber growth and strengthening across all key segments. The full-year 2025 EPS forecast was raised to 5.75 USD, representing a 16% increase from 2024. Operating profit is expected to grow at a double-digit rate in Entertainment, by approximately 18% in Sports and by 6–8% in Experiences.

The Walt Disney Company’s Q3 2025 financial results

On 7 August, The Walt Disney Company released its Q3 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 28 June 2025. The key figures are as follows:

• Revenue: 23.65 billion USD (+2%)
• Net income: 3.21 billion USD (+4%)
• Earnings per share: 1.61 USD (+16%)
• Operating profit: 4.57 billion USD (+8%)

Revenue by segment:

• Entertainment: 10.70 billion USD (+1%)
• Sports: 4.30 billion USD (–5%)
• Experiences: 9.08 billion USD (+8%)
• Eliminations: (448) million USD (vs a loss of 369 million USD in the prior year)

Segment operating income:

• Entertainment: 1.02 billion USD (–15%)
• Sports: 1.03 billion USD (+29%)
• Experiences: 2.51 billion USD (+13%)

In Q3 FY2025, Disney delivered modest growth, with revenue up 2% year-on-year and broadly flat compared with the previous quarter. Adjusted EPS rose to 1.61 USD, exceeding analyst expectations. On a GAAP basis, EPS reached 2.92 USD, although this was boosted by a one-time tax benefit related to Hulu. Total operating profit across segments increased 8% to 4.58 billion USD, reflecting improved margins.

The Disney Entertainment segment reported revenue of 10.70 billion USD (+1% year-on-year), but operating profit fell 15% to 1.02 billion USD. The main pressure came from declining traditional TV and weaker content sales and licensing, which did not replicate the prior-year success of Inside Out 2, alongside higher film write-offs. Streaming proved to be the key growth driver: Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ collectively lifted revenue to 6.18 billion USD (+6% year-on-year) and generated their first profit of 346 million USD, compared with a loss in the same quarter last year. Subscriber growth continued: Disney+ reached 127.8 million (+1.8 million in the quarter), Hulu 55.5 million (+0.8 million), while ESPN+ remained steady at 24.1 million.

The Sports segment, led by ESPN, generated 4.31 billion USD in revenue (-5% year-on-year due to the removal of Star India), but operating profit rose 29% to 1.04 billion USD. In the US, ESPN was hit by higher NBA broadcasting rights costs, but overall results improved thanks to the absence of losses from Star India and stronger advertising revenue.

The Experiences segment, which includes parks, resorts, and cruises, again proved to be the main cash generator. Revenue climbed to 9.09 billion USD (+8% year-on-year), while profit rose to 2.52 billion USD (+13% year-on-year). US parks and cruises delivered particularly strong growth, driven by higher guest spending and fleet expansion. International parks delivered moderate revenue growth, although profits declined slightly. Consumer Products revenue rose 3% to 0.99 billion USD, with profit of 444 million USD (+1% year-on-year).

For Q4, Disney projected subscriber growth of more than 10 million across Disney+ and Hulu and expected adjusted EPS for full-year 2025 of around 5.85 USD (+18% year-on-year). Operating profit growth was expected across all segments: Entertainment in the double digits, Sports around 18%, and Experiences around 8%. In the longer term, the company is betting on expanding its parks (including a new project in Abu Dhabi), growing its cruise business, and leveraging strong franchises such as Star Wars, Marvel, and Pixar. For ESPN, the emphasis has shifted towards digital services and partnerships, although management does not currently intend to spin off the division as a separate publicly listed company.

The Walt Disney Company Q4 2025 financial results

On 13 November, The Walt Disney Company released its Q4 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 27 September 2025. The key figures are as follows:

• Revenue: 22.46 billion USD (0%)
• Net income: 2.04 billion USD (+115%)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 1.11 USD (–3%)
• Operating profit (non-GAAP): 3.48 billion USD (–5%)

Revenue by segment:

• Entertainment: 10.21 billion USD (+1%)
• Sports: 3.98 billion USD (+2%)
• Experiences: 8.77 billion USD (+6%)
• Eliminations: (490) million USD (vs a loss of 409 million USD a year earlier)

Segment operating income:

• Entertainment: 0.69 billion USD (–15%)
• Sports: 0.91 billion USD (–2%)
• Experiences: 1.88 billion USD (+13%)

Disney’s Q4 2025 report was mixed: the company beat profit expectations but slightly missed revenue forecasts. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 1.11 USD, above the market consensus of 1.03–1.07 USD, resulting in modest outperformance. Revenue reached 22.5 billion USD, just below analysts’ expectations of 22.7–23.0 billion USD, remaining broadly unchanged from the prior year.

Total segment operating income (non-GAAP) declined 5% year-on-year to 3.48 billion USD, primarily due to weakness in the Entertainment segment, which includes film, linear television and content sales. The Sports division was broadly flat, while Experiences (parks, cruises, and consumer products) posted a 13% increase in operating income to 1.88 billion USD on 6% higher revenue of 8.77 billion USD.

The streaming segment (Direct-to-Consumer) performed notably better, with revenue increasing by 8% to 6.25 billion USD and operating profit increasing by 39% to 352 million USD, indicating that streaming is now delivering consistent positive results.

Management issued an upbeat outlook for the next fiscal year. In FY 2026, Disney expects double-digit growth in adjusted earnings per share compared to 2025, projects operating cash flow of approximately 19 billion USD, plans capital expenditures of around 9 billion USD, and intends to double its share buyback program to 7 billion USD (from 3.5 billion USD in 2025). The annual dividend will also increase by 50% to 1.50 USD per share.

The company further plans to sustain double-digit EPS growth in FY 2027, implement a 10-year investment plan totalling 60 billion USD to expand its parks and cruise businesses, and achieve around 10% profit margins in streaming by 2026.

The Walt Disney Company Q1 2026 financial results

On 2 February 2026, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) released its Q1 2026 financial results for the quarter ended 27 December 2025. Key figures compared to the same period last year are as follows:

• Revenue: 25.98 billion USD (+5%)
• Net income: 2.40 billion USD (–6%)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 1.63 USD (–7%)
• Operating profit (non-GAAP): 4.60 billion USD (–9%)

Revenue by segment:

• Entertainment: 11.61 billion USD (+7%)
• Sports: 4.91 billion USD (+1%)
• Experiences: 10.01 billion USD (+6%)
• Eliminations: –543 million USD (compared with –447 million USD a year ago)

Segment operating income:

• Entertainment: 1.10 billion USD (–35%)
• Sports: 0.19 billion USD (–23%)
• Experiences: 3.31 billion USD (+6%)

Disney’s Q1 2026 results beat expectations for revenue and adjusted EPS, but shares fell by 8% immediately after the release. Investor concerns centred on weaker international traffic in US parks, a decline in Entertainment segment profitability due to high content and marketing costs, reduced transparency of certain metrics, and uncertainty surrounding the CEO succession.

Revenue grew 5% YoY, exceeding forecasts, and adjusted EPS also beat expectations despite the YoY decline. Total segment operating income fell 9%, indicating margin pressure. The main challenge for the quarter was cash flow, with operating cash flow declining sharply to 0.74 billion USD (from 3.21 billion USD a year earlier), and free cash flow turning negative at –2.28 billion USD (from +0.74 billion USD previously), primarily due to significant investments in parks and the cruise business.

The Experiences segment delivered the strongest performance. Parks and resorts achieved record revenue and high margins of around 33%. US attendance rose slightly, and average spending per guest increased, making this segment the company’s main profit driver.

Streaming also performed well, with revenue and operating income growing significantly and margins improving, demonstrating Disney’s ongoing progress in building a profitable streaming business.

The outlook for Q2 2026 appears cautious. In the Entertainment segment, operating income is expected to remain in line with Q2 2025, while streaming operating income is projected at 0.50 billion USD (+0.2 billion USD YoY). Revenue in the Sports segment is expected to match last year’s level, though operating profit may decline by 0.10 billion USD due to higher costs for sports rights. The Experiences segment is expected to see moderate profit growth.

For the full 2026 financial year, Disney reaffirms double-digit adjusted EPS growth, anticipates approximately 19 billion USD in operating cash flow, and plans a 7 billion USD share buyback program.

Analysis of key valuation multiples for The Walt Disney Company

Below are the main valuation multiples for Walt Disney based on the Q1 2026 financial results, calculated at a share price of 103 USD.

Valuation multiples analysis for The Walt Disney Company – conclusion

Based on current multiples, Disney appears to be a stable, mature business with moderate growth, rather than undergoing rapid expansion. The P/E ratio of around 15 and the P/S of approximately 2 are typical for a company with moderate growth rates. EV/EBITDA of around 12 is also reasonable, provided earnings do not decline. The forward P/E of 15 suggests that investors expect gradual improvement rather than a sharp jump in profits.

The main focus is on free cash flow. With a P/FCF of around 26 and an FCF yield of 3.9%, the shares are not cheap, emphasising the need to monitor cash flow quality. If high investments or seasonal factors keep FCF unstable (as it turned negative last quarter), the stock price may fall even with normal reported profits. Conversely, if cash flow stabilises and begins to grow, the current valuation would appear justified.

Expert forecasts for The Walt Disney Company shares for 2026

• Barchart: 21 out of 31 analysts rated Walt Disney shares as a Strong Buy, 4 as a Moderate Buy, 5 as Hold, and 1 as a Strong Sell. The upper price target is 160 USD, and the lower bound is 77 USD.
• MarketBeat: 17 out of 24 specialists assigned a Buy rating, 6 recommended Hold, and 1 recommended Sell. The upper price target is 151 USD, and the lower bound is 112 USD.
• TipRanks: 17 out of 20 professionals gave a Buy recommendation, and 3 gave a Hold recommendation. The upper price target is 151 USD, and the lower bound is 123 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 8 out of 15 experts rated the shares as a Strong Buy, 6 as Buy, and 1 as Hold. The upper price target is 150 USD, and the lower bound is 112 USD.

The Walt Disney Company stock price forecast for 2026

The decline in Walt Disney shares began in March 2021 from 200 USD, and only ended in October 2023 at 80 USD. Previously, the shares had also fallen to this support level from 150 USD during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, when government-imposed lockdowns and border closures sharply reduced park attendance. This level clearly acts as a critical support zone, attracting buying interest from investors.

As of March 2026, Walt Disney shares continue to trade within a wide range between 80 and 122 USD. In June 2025, there was an attempt to break above the upper boundary of this range, but demand proved insufficient to overcome the resistance. The Q1 2026 earnings report was poorly received by investors, causing DIS shares to fall.

While investments in business development are positive, the negative free cash flow remains a concern for investors. Against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, rising oil and fuel prices are increasing company costs and reducing consumer purchasing power. Under these conditions, Walt Disney’s financial results in the coming quarters are likely to face pressure. Based on the current performance of Walt Disney shares, the potential price movements for 2026 are as follows:

The primary forecast for Walt Disney shares suggests a break below support at 100 USD, with a further decline to the lower boundary of the range at 80 USD. If concerns about the company’s financial health persist, DIS could breach 80 USD, potentially falling to 40 USD.

The optimistic forecast for Walt Disney stock anticipates a rebound from support at 100 USD, in which case prices could rise towards 165 USD.

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