EUR managed to stabilise. Overview for 01.03.2024

The primary currency pair appears neutral on Friday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0811.

The market has received the primary set of essential statistics scheduled for release this week. It is time to analyse them and adjust the prices accordingly.

Yesterday, the US published the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure – the Core PCE index for January. The indicator increased by 0.4% m/m, matching forecasts. In a year-on-year comparison, it grew by 2.8% compared to December's level of 2.9%.

Everything unfolded as planned. The inflation component showed no significant increase in activity, which bodes well for the Fed's plans to reduce interest rates.

Overall, market expectations regarding the timing of the first step towards reducing the cost of borrowing have shifted to June instead of March or May. Investors now anticipate an average of three rate cuts in 2024. Previous forecasts were much more ambitious.