The Euro may continue falling. Overview for 01.04.2019

The major currency pair is keeping its balance on the first day of April, but everything might change very quickly. 

EURUSD was pretty depressed at the end of March, but investors managed to find support and prevent the pair from further decline. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1230.

Last week, the Euro was let down by weak numbers from Germany as market players were seriously worried that slowdown in the German economy might significantly influence other countries, for example France. Two problematic spots on the European economic map (without mentioning Italy, the budget and the debt market of which are a total mess) are too much for the Euro to handle. Other things that put more pressure on the European currency were deterioration of economic outlook for the Euro Area and rather soft comments from the ECB on its monetary policy. 

As a result, March was the weakest month for EURUSD since October 2018. 

Today’s macroeconomic calendar is full of numbers. The Euro Area and some of its countries, such as Spain, Italy, France, and Germany, are scheduled to report on the Manufacturing PMI in March. Market expectations for all of them show no changes or slight changes for the worse. However, this indicator is more or less neutral for EURUSD, unless they show significant decline. Special attention should be paid to the number from Germany. 

Later, the Euro Area will publish the Unemployment Rate, which is highly expected to remain at 7.8%. If there are no significant changes, there will be no response from investors. 
In addition to that, the preliminary report on the CPI Estimate in March will come out. The indicator is expected to remain at 1.5% y/y, which is lower than the ECB’s target at 2.0% y/y. However, this report may support the Euro: absence of negative news is good news. 

In late afternoon, the USA will report on the Retail Sales in February. The only thing that matters here is to keep positive momentum. Market expectations imply +0.3% m/m after the same the month before. However, the Personal Income report published last Friday (+0.2% m/m against the expected reading of +0.3% m/m) may indicate that the Retail Sales may also be weaker than expected.

Also, in the evening the USA are going to publish the Manufacturing PMI and the Construction Spending. The latter is expected to add 0.1% m/m, which is not very serious for EURUSD.