Monthly Wave Analysis for September, 2012 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY)

Analysis for September, 2012

EUR/USD

Euro was adopted in 1999, and all synthetic data prior to that year presented by different providers may differ significantly. That’s why the chart of the EUR/USD currency pair looks like a mirror image of that of Swiss Franc. Taking this into account, we may assume that currently the pair is forming a large ascending double zigzag, [W]-[X]-[Y] of Z.



We can’t exclude a possibility that the price may have already finished triple zigzag, W-X-Y-X-Z of (Z) of [X], and the major correction [X] in the form of triple three, although it’s not confirmed yet. If it’s true, we can expect the pair to continue forming an ascending wave [Y] in the form of a large (double) zigzag.



One of the possible scenarios can be seen on the figure below. We may assume that the price has completed (or is completing) a descending triple zigzag, W-X-Y-X-Z of (Z) of [X], and a new ascending trend has started with wedge pattern (i). Of the assumption is correct, it’s quite logical to expect the pair to continue moving upwards inside wave [Y].

GBP/USD

A global horizontal correction has been taking place over the last 20 years. The correction is taking the form of a possible divergent horizontal triangle [X] of x with wave (E) of [X] of x inside, which probably hasn’t been completed yet.



We may assume that rapid descending movement from 2.05 to 1.35 forced the price to form a reduced fifth wave [v] of A of (E) of [X], and the entire descending movement is the first part of a possible zigzag A-B-C of (E) of [X]. If the assumption is correct, the pair will continue moving upwards without breaking the closest critical level. Zigzag B may be completed near 1.7 or a bit higher, where there is a strong resistance level.



We can’t exclude a possibility that the correction [b] of B has been finished in the form of flat with diagonal triangle (c) of [b] inside. If it’s true, we can expect the ascending trend to continue with wave [c]of B, which started with wedge (i) inside it.

USD/CHF

Over the last 40 years Swiss Franc has been forming a zigzag-like descending structure, which may be identified as triple zigzag. If the assumption is correct, then according to wave analysis we can expect the long-term ascending trend after the price finishes forming such a pattern.



We can’t exclude a possibility that a final wave [C] is taking the form of diagonal triangle. The price has completed (or is completing right now) the correction (4) of [C]. In this case it’s quite logical to expect to move downwards and form a final wave (5) of [C]. At the same time, one should take into account that currency interventions on the part of Swiss National Bank may change wave structure a lot.



One of the possible scenarios implies that the correction (4) has been completed in the form of an ascending double zigzag W-X-Y of (4). If it’s true, we can expect the price to continue forming a descending zigzag (5), which started with wedge [i] of A of (5).

USD/JPY

Wave structure at the longer timeframes implies that the price is finishing (or may have already finished) a major descending trend in the form of a possible impulse (or double zigzag). If the assumption is correct, we can expect this major trend to reverse upwards and start forming, at least, a global ascending correction.



One of the possible scenarios implies that a final wave V is taking the form of diagonal triangle, in which wave [3] is shorter than wave [1]. It means that the critical level is about 60 and the price mustn’t break it before completing the triangle. At the moment the price is completing (or may have already completed) quite a long correction [4] of V.



We may assume that the price is completing (or may have already completed) quite a long correction [4] of V, after which it’s quite logical to expect the pair to move downwards and form a final wave [5] of V.