At the crossroads. XAU/USD wave analysis

Analysis for September 12^th, 2014

In our previous review, “The beginning of the uptrend. Wave analysis of XAU/USD for 09.09.2014”, we discussed a possible scenario how the price may start an ascending wave [C] of e of (iv).

Our assumption about the start of an ascending wave [C] of e of (iv) hasn’t been confirmed and the price chosen another scenario by breaking the shape of a possible triangle(iv), thus forcing us to change the chart structure.



Our long-tern expectations haven’t changed so far – the pair is finishing impulse [a] of A and the whole large descending zigzag[a]-[b]-[c] of A of (4).



However, we may assume that a possible triangle(iv) of [c] of A has been already completed or is getting bigger that we expected earlier.

In the former case, the market may be finishing a descending impulse iii of (v) of [c] of the final impulse (v) of [c]. If it’s true, then the price is expected to form a slight ascending correction iv of (v) towards level of ~1250, after which it may continue falling inside the final wave v of (v).

An alternative scenario (colored in grey) implies that the pair is finishing a descending double zigzagd of (iv) of [c] of a large triangle(iv) of [c]. If the price chooses to continue this scenario, the market is expected to form a large ascending zigzage of (iv) towards level of ~1300.

However, at the same time one should remember that any possible scenario is subjective and the market may move in a completely different direction.

RoboForex Analytical Department