Morning Call. Market Overview for 04.11.2016

The Big Picture

International stock markets have been in a downward trend for over a week. The cause for this is the possibility that Donald Trump, who is viewed as unpredictable, could win the election. How was this in the past? Viewing the development of the Dow Jones´s over the period of one year, after each US election since 1952, the market rose by 10% when the ruling party won. The market fell by 2.3% when the opposition party won. This fact shows that should the current ruling party win, a political continuity is given. Should the opposition win, uncertainty reigns over future political decisions. As such, when Democrats won, the market rose by 10%. When Republicans won, the market fell slightly. This fact is quite surprising, as many believe that a Republican win in an election, is positive for Wall Street.

DAX

The DAX is in a sideways trend.  Resistance is at 10820, support at 10250.

Euro / USD

The Euro is in a large sideways trend against the Dollar. Support is at 1.0822, resistance at 1.1429.

USD / JPY

The USD is in a short-term downward trend, major support is at 100.

Gold

Gold is in an upward trend

WTI Oil

WTI Oil is in a downward trend

Overnight:

German stocks managed to retrace initial losses, the DAX even reaching positive ground. In light of falling prices on Wall Street, the DAX resumed its downward trend. The index lost 0.43%, with the largest losing stock being Adidas at -6.28%. Investors had expected even better numbers than those, which were released. Beiersdorf rose 4.62% on the back of its results. The Nivea producer gave a positive outlook for profits. In US markets, Durable Goods came in weaker than expected at -0.3% against expectations of -0.1%. All deciding factor in US markets are the elections, the S&P losing 0.44% due to uncertainty. Asian markets continue to rise this morning. The USD rebounds slightly, Gold is weaker and WTI Oil rises slightly.

Economic Data:

• 09:55 Germany: Market PMI
• 13:30 USA: Jobs Numbers

Quarterly Results:

• Germany: Commerzbank, BMW
• USA: Berkshire Hathaway amongst others

RoboForex Analytical Department