The AUD/USD pair is now trading on the upside after fairly confident comments from the RBA.
The Australian dollar recently got really lucky with the reactions and news. The long phase of weakening observed earlier, almost accustomed the capital markets to the fact of constant depreciation of the AUD - because it perfectly fits into the fiscal views of the Reserve Bank of Australia. However, the market is living by its own rules and not always clearly fulfills what is expected of it.
This morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia made comments according to which they said the slowing of the economy in the second quarter, is a short-term factor. The situation on the labor market assessed fairly positively by the RBA, the regulator noted stability in commodity prices and the positive effects of low interest rates.
According to the official conclusions of the RBA, inflationary pressures in the country will remain low for some time. The approximate time range is 12-24 months. I think it is quite an appropriate framework: this is enough for fiscal stabilization, reduction in the share of external risks and increase in domestic demand. There are questions for the capacity of utilization, but here, too, it takes time.
Interestingly, the Australian regulator, analyzing the real estate market suggests continued high proportion of risk here, both for financial and for global economic stability. Perhaps we are talking about the possibility of an inflating "bubble" in the big cities.
The current quotation in the AUD/USD pair is 0.7284. Closer to the middle of the week the currency market will begin to become unstable, and this too will affect the positions of the Aussie.
RoboForex Analytical Department
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