On Monday, the Russian currency ignored the oil rally. For nothing, appearingly.
The Russian ruble looks stable at the beginning of the first week in September even given what we see on the oil market. During the day, the oil gained more than 4%, but the Ruble rose only slightly comparing to the US Dollar. At the moment the rush fluctuations in the oil market have decreased, Brent has risen by 1.2% and reached $47.43. US Dollar costs about RUB 64.90. The middle-term trading range keeps intact – 64.00 – 67.00. Investors have made several attempts to break through either limit of the range, but failed to do so.
It seems to us that the biggest price moves in USD/RUB pair are to be seen in the last decade of September. By that moment the Russian Central Bank and the Fed will have concluded their meetings whereas all those who wish to see reforms and gain control over commodity prices will have met in Algeria during OPEC’s meeting. Having facts in its hands, the market can more simply decide on where to go.
Fundamentally, the Ruble has many chances to fall this autumn given various factors, fiscal deficit being one of them. The first target is 67 RUB/USD.
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