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Home / Analytics / Forex analysis & forecasts / Forex Fundamental analysis / The euro is falling. Review on 29.02.2016
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The euro is falling. Review on 29.02.2016

The main currency pair continues to weaken, although no specific desire to sell is visible from investors.

The euro on the last day of this "strange" winter continues to weaken, although at the moment investors have no desire to sell nor aggressive intentions to buy. Everything is too calm. The current quote in the EUR/USD pair is 1.0906.

Today, the euro zone has reported on the February inflation. Here there is something to be upset about. The consumer price index in the region in the past month fell by 0.2% y/y against the zero level of the forecast and the previous fact of growth of 0.3%. That is the instability of European inflation when the indicator is so abruptly "thrown from the heat in the cold." The base value (ie "cleaned" from volatile goods groups) inflation in February was only 0.7% y/y vs. expectations of 0.9% y/y. So, it's not just the cost of energy.

This is clear, so, most likely, this week we will get more confirmation of this, when the euro zone will publish data on retail sales.

Where the consumer interest remains negligible, and does not increase the expenditure part for many months in a row, it is difficult to expect a sharp improvement in market conditions. The European Central Bank, working with the QE program, can not affect the activity of the final consumer, and this is the difficulty of rebooting the entire financial system.

This week there will be a lot of statistics that deserve attention - the US will publish data on the employment market with a report from ADP on the number of jobs in the private sector in the near future, and the main block will traditionally be reported on Friday. For now the dollar feels confident and factors that can reverse this mood are yet to be seen.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.