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Home / Analytics / Forex analysis & forecasts / Forex Fundamental analysis / The Australian Dollar couldn’t keep its upward momentum. Overview for 02.06.2016
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The Australian Dollar couldn’t keep its upward momentum. Overview for 02.06.2016

The AUD/USD pair is falling on Thursday due to the complicated statistics and absence of ideas.

The AUD/USD pair had been growing for a couple of days, and it was quite inspiring, because the instrument moved away from February’s lows and completed a successful correction. However, during today’s trading session the pair is falling and moving mostly close to 0.7224 (-0.4%).

According to the data published on Thursday, retail sales in Australia in April increased only by 0.2% m/m against the predicted number of 0.3% m/m. Visible trade of balance in April was -$AUD1.58 billion against the predicted number of -$AUD2 billion.  

In the retail sales report components, one can see that the warm weather in April (now it’s autumn in Australia and it was getting colder gradually) reduced the number of seasonal clothing and footwear purchases, and, of course, it influenced the retails sales indicator. Earlier, prior to April, this indicator had been moving dynamically for four months in a row. So far, today’s statistics may be considered as the correction of the previous significant growth (about 8.3% y/y). It barely looks like the end of the steady and positive trend.

However, neutral and positive data from Australia is not enough for the AUD/USD pair to grow. The market takes an unbiased look at actions of China, for example, which devalues Yuan in order to prevent the capital from outflowing. If the devaluation continues for weeks and months, it might become a new stage of currency wars. The Aussie investors see these risks very well.
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