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Home / Analytics / Forex analysis & forecasts / Forex Fundamental analysis / How the job position is calculated in the USA. Fundamental overview on March 3, 2016
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How the job position is calculated in the USA. Fundamental overview on March 3, 2016


How the job position is calculated in the USA

On the day before, the February ADP data on labor market was released. The data anticipate official statistic that will be issued at the nearest Friday. According to the issued data, during the previous month 214k of jobs was created that is sufficiently more than expected values. The additional growth was achieved by the largest enterprises of the service sector, while there is a negative trend in the manufacture sector.

In addition, the ADP estimation for the previous month was revised with rising, which allows expecting favor data from the Bureau of Statistics of Labor Market. Let me remind you: January’s statistics was close to failure, showing job growth only on 158k. At the same time, due to a number of differences, ADP and the Bureau data are almost never the same, which is why the ADP data indicate a possible trend for Friday's Bureau of Statistics, but not the exact number.

The first difference between the reports concludes that the ADP relies exclusively on the private sector data, while the Bureau counts also a state (in both reports the agricultural sector is excluded). Why is this happening? The fact that ADP is the largest US outsorting company processing payrolls, and ADP simply does not have access to the data of the public sector as opposed to the Bureau.

Report of the Bureau is based on data on unemployment insurance that provided by the employers monthly. Accordingly, both reports count jobs indirectly. Moreover, since both the Bureau and ADP do not consider the entire data, and use the sample, subsequently making the extrapolation, the reports also has the statistical error. Therefore, we can only talk about trends and the vector of the labor market, and no one really knows the exact number of these same jobs.

However, despite the lack of precision in both reports on the labor market, they are one of the main tools to assess the dynamics of job creation, because the analysis of payroll data for the insurance data provides information as quickly as possible. In addition, as one report prepared by a private company, and the second by the public service, then the credibility of both materials is extremely high.

How the job position is calculated in the USA. Fundamental overview on March 3, 2016

The most important statistics of every Thursday is the number of applications for the unemployment benefits in the United States. Today's data is expected at the level of last week, and if the statistics will be released "without surprises", it is possible to continue the flat, or the Euro-Dollar pair goes in the upward correction. Apparently, before the Friday publication of labor market data we will not see any strong movements on the market.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.