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Home / Analytics / Forex analysis & forecasts / Forex Fundamental analysis / Brexit: to be or not to be. Fundamental analysis for 22.06.2016
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Brexit: to be or not to be. Fundamental analysis for 22.06.2016

22.06.2016
It’s less than 24 hours until the British referendum. Voting stations will be open on Thursday from 9 am to midnight Moscow time. Consequently, the voting results will be published on the early Friday morning, but the final results of exit polls will be known right away and may force significant market fluctuations. For many people, the business hours will continue during the night in anticipation of the results – overwhelming majority of financial institutions will go on working day without fixed working hours.

So far, predictions of bookmakers that accept bets on the referendum results are in favor of those, who want to stay in the European Union. At the same time, social scientists are not so straightforward in their predictions, because everything depends on those Brits, who haven’t made up their minds yet and whose side they are going to take. Yesterday, there were largest debates in London featuring the former and current mayors, Boris Johnson and Sadiq Khan.

The debates were the most top-rated during this campaign, but it’s very unlikely that almost two-hour political showdown will induce the swing voters to vote for preserving a status quo. One can argue with Boris Johnson, call him the British Donald Trump, and even stick the “populist label” on him, but there is one thing the Outers have that cannot be denied – the ability to lay down their ideas concisely and briefly.

“Take back control!”, a cliché of this campaign, which is used both in relation to the economy and immigration, is the anchor of the entire campaign of euro skeptics. Notably, yesterday’s debates clearly showed that the Remainians had almost nothing to counterpose. You don't bring a knife to a gunfight. When Boris Johnson asked why all important decisions are made by non- elected authorities in Brussels, Sadiq Khan had nothing to answer.

Considering that the debates were very top-rated and the voting is going to take place tomorrow, they are sure to influence the results. Few people are ready predict how strong influence might be, but it’s quite obvious that Sadiq Khan wasn’t able to convince the doubtful Brits to vote in favor of the Remainians. Moreover, there are rumors that Elizabeth II is also skeptical about staying in the EU (according to The Guardian) and it’s not good for those, who are in favor of the European Union membership. However, these rumors were neither officially confirmed, nor denied.
 
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