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Home / Analytics / Forex analysis & forecasts / Forex Fundamental analysis / The Euro is stepping back. Overview for 14.03.2016
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The Euro is stepping back. Overview for 14.03.2016

The main currency pair has been falling for the second consecutive day after making a fast ascending movement last Thursday, but there are a lot of nervous events for the market ahead.

The Eurodollar has been stepping back for the second day in a row, investors’ optimism, which was clearly seen last Thursday after the March meeting of ECB, is vanishing. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1107.

Today, the Eurozone published the statistics on the industrial production in January. The volume number over this period has increased by 2,1% m/m against the decrease in last December by 0,5% m/m. On a year-on-year basis, the industrial production has added 2,8%. For the Eurozone, this number has increased by 2,5% y/y.

January’s strengthening of the industrial production numbers is the most significant over 6 years as it exceeded expectations, although the report includes a bit of the correction towards weak numbers in December. The main contribution into industrial production at the beginning of the year was made by capital goods and energy sectors, positive support was received from consumer interest to durable goods.

The fact that at the beginning of the year the Eurozone started to consume actively, including durable goods, means that the Europeans are finally ready to stop saving and start spending. It’s not a signal for economic stabilization and more clear perspectives yet, but it’s much better that the consumers’ “energy preservation” mode.

For the Eurodollar, this week will be quite nervous as well. Tomorrow, a two day’s meeting of the USA FRS will start, with the results of which Janet Yellen will hold a press conference on Wednesday evening. The tone of her statements may have a strong influence on the mid-term of the American currency. The softer and more careful the speech of Mrs. Yellen will be, the more chances the US Dollar will have to return to the levels reached last Thursday.
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